IndiView: Market Update and Outlook (April 2026)

Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Market Update and Outlook for April 2026. The video is included at the bottom of this post.

In this month’s IndiView: Market Update and Outlook, we take a broader look at the U.S. economy, financial markets, and the themes shaping investor decisions so far in 2026. We also revisit our earlier outlook to assess what has held up, what has changed, and how that affects positioning for the rest of the year.

Asset Class Performance
The clearest story in the first quarter was the surge in oil. Commodities significantly outperformed, driven largely by oil’s move from around $60 per barrel to more than $100. That sharp increase made most other asset classes look relatively muted by comparison. U.S. large-cap stocks were down to start the year, with technology among the weakest areas, while most other major asset classes were relatively flat. Gold remained positive on a year-to-date basis despite pulling back from its highs, while Bitcoin continued to struggle and was down sharply again.

Scorecard: What Has Changed Since January
Our early-2026 outlook emphasized elevated geopolitical risk, a stagnant Federal Reserve, slow economic growth, and cautious positioning. That framework has largely held up. Markets appeared willing to look through geopolitical tensions until oil became directly involved, at which point the risk became much harder to ignore. One area that has shifted is equity valuation: stock prices have fallen while earnings estimates have risen, making the market cheaper than it was earlier in the year, even if not outright cheap.

The U.S. Economy: Slow, Not Strong
The overall economic backdrop still looks sub-average. GDP growth slowed through late 2025, and early estimates for 2026 suggest further deceleration rather than reacceleration. That does not signal a collapse, but it does suggest an economy that remains stuck in a below-trend growth environment. In our view, the current backdrop is better described as sluggish than robust.

Jobs: Low Hire, Low Fire
The labor market continues to show what we described earlier this year as “low hire, low fire.” Unemployment remains relatively low by historical standards, which supports the idea that businesses are not aggressively cutting workers. At the same time, job creation has slowed materially versus longer-term averages. That combination points to an economy that is not breaking down, but also not generating the kind of momentum that would support a stronger expansion. Artificial intelligence may also be contributing to slower hiring, as firms test whether they can increase productivity without adding headcount.

Inflation, Affordability, and the Fed
Inflation remains above target, and higher energy prices create a meaningful headwind. Food, electricity, and oil continue to pressure household budgets, leaving affordability concerns unresolved. We also continue to believe U.S. consumers are bearing much of the cost of tariffs in one form or another. That matters because it complicates the Federal Reserve’s position: inflation is not high enough to suggest a crisis, but it is not contained enough to make rate cuts easy either. Over the past month, market expectations have shifted meaningfully toward no Fed move at all in 2026. In our view, the Fed remains in a holding pattern unless economic conditions change enough to force its hand.

Bonds, Earnings, and Stock Valuation
Bond yields have not changed enough to alter our view. Investors are still not being paid much to extend maturity or take on significantly more credit risk, which supports a conservative approach in fixed income. Stocks, however, are more interesting. Earnings estimates have continued to rise, and that remains the strongest fundamental support for equities right now. As prices have fallen while earnings expectations have improved, the market has become less expensive than it was earlier in the year. We still would not call equities cheap, but they no longer appear as stretched as they once did.

Pullbacks, Time Horizon, and Politics
A consistent reminder in our update is that market pullbacks are normal. The S&P 500 has already experienced a meaningful decline this year and is not unusual in the context of long-term investing. Another reminder is the importance of understanding your time horizon. Investors with near-term liquidity needs should prioritize certainty, while those with longer time horizons can better withstand uncertainty in pursuit of higher long-term returns. Lastly, politics may create noise, but portfolios trading around political headlines often produce worse long-term results than portfolios built around discipline and matched to your objectives and the time to achieve them.

The Path Forward
Our core outlook remains largely intact: geopolitical risk is still elevated, the Fed is likely to remain on hold in the near term, job growth and housing activity remain sluggish, and fixed income still argues for caution. The biggest shift is that equities now look somewhat more reasonable, even if still above average on valuation. We are not calling for aggressive risk-taking, but we are also less convinced investors need to be overly defensive. Within equities, we continue to favor recurring revenue and defensive businesses, and we increasingly see weakness in software as a potential opportunity rather than a reason to avoid the space entirely. We remain neutral on international equities, cautious on alternatives, and supportive of rebalancing positions such as gold and silver after their gains.