IndiView: Weekly Market Update 7/13/26

Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Weekly Market Update for 7/13/26. The full video can be seen at the bottom of this post.

This week’s IndiView Weekly Market Update focuses on renewed geopolitical risk, the upcoming inflation report, and what financial-sector earnings may reveal about the economy.

Oil Markets Remain Relatively Calm

Tensions between Iran and the United States have increased again, including renewed concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the headlines, oil prices remain in the low-$70 range rather than signaling a severe supply disruption.

We continue to view roughly $60 to $80 per barrel as a relatively normal long-term range for oil. The muted response may also reflect how much more resilient global businesses have become when dealing with supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts and other unexpected events.

The upcoming earnings season should provide more insight into whether the conflict is affecting costs, operations or corporate outlooks.

Businesses Have Become More Resilient

The pandemic forced companies to reconsider how they manage supply chains and operational risk. Many businesses have since diversified suppliers, improved contingency planning and developed more flexibility when disruptions occur.

That does not mean companies can completely avoid the effects of geopolitical conflict. However, recent earnings growth and the limited market reaction suggest that businesses may be better positioned to absorb these shocks than they were several years ago.

Inflation May Be Stabilizing at an Elevated Level

The latest Consumer Price Index report is due this week, with expectations pointing to a modest decline from the previous month.

Lower oil prices during the most recent reporting period could help reduce some input costs. Other categories may continue to create inflation pressure, but the broader trend does not currently appear to be accelerating in the way it did during 2022.

Our base case is that inflation remains elevated but relatively stable. A reading near current expectations would support the idea that inflation has reached a plateau, even though it has not yet returned to the Federal Reserve’s preferred level.

Financial Earnings Will Highlight Investment Banking

Several large banks report earnings this week, and investment banking activity is likely to receive significant attention.

The IPO and mergers-and-acquisitions markets have been especially active, creating the potential for substantial revenue growth at firms such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.

Strong investment banking revenue can meaningfully increase earnings. However, investors have historically been reluctant to assign higher valuations to banks based on revenue that may be cyclical or difficult to repeat.

Strong Banking Results May Not Mean Higher Valuations

Investment banking can create a significant short-term boost, but the market often treats that revenue as temporary. Investors may normalize unusually strong results rather than assume they will continue indefinitely.

Banks could also face difficult comparisons next year if current activity proves to be unusually strong. For valuations to rise meaningfully, investors would likely need confidence that the deal pipeline can remain healthy for an extended period.

Consumer Health and Wealth Management Matter More

While investment banking will attract headlines, we will be paying closer attention to traditional banking activity and the financial health of consumers.

Credit-card performance, loan growth, delinquencies and credit quality can provide useful information about the strength of the broader economy. These areas may offer more insight than a temporary increase in dealmaking revenue.

At Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, wealth management results will also be important. Wealth management generally provides a more recurring and durable revenue stream than investment banking, making it especially valuable to long-term investors.

Our Attempt to Build an 82-0 NBA Team

We close this week with a lighter topic: the 82-0 basketball roster-building game that has become popular on social media.

The game randomly assigns an NBA franchise and decade, challenging players to select a roster capable of finishing a perfect 82-0 season. It is especially entertaining for longtime NBA fans who enjoy revisiting players and teams from different eras.

Our best result so far is 81-1, leaving the perfect season just out of reach.