IndiView: Market Update and Outlook (December 2025)

In this month’s IndiView Monthly, we take a broader look across asset classes—stocks, bonds, alternatives, sectors, housing, and commodities—to understand what worked in November, what didn’t, and how we’re positioning as we head into year-end.

Below is a summarized transcript with the full video at the bottom of the page.

Stocks: Better Than It Felt

November felt volatile, but the actual results were more stable than the headlines suggested.

The S&P 500 finished positive for the month.
Nasdaq and Emerging Markets saw minor declines (around –1.6% to –1.7%), but nothing dramatic.
Year-to-date, equities remain strong across the board—large, small, and international.
International markets have delivered one of their best years in decades, with emerging and developed markets each up nearly 30%.

Bottom line: The market held up far better than the sentiment implied.

Bonds: Investors Have Been Rewarded for Risk

Bond returns have been positive overall – with credit and maturity risk adding value this year:

Long-duration bonds were rewarded as interest rates declined. Credit risk has added value as well.
By contrast, short-duration positioning (IndiWealth’s preferred stance) lagged relative to buyers of longer maturities.
That said, holding shorter remains appropriate—we simply aren’t being paid enough to take on maturity or credit risk right now.

Cash returned ~3.8% YTD and aggregate bonds ~7.5%, but, in our opinion, risk/reward still leans conservative.

Alternatives: Gold Soars, Bitcoin Stumbles

A major divergence has emerged:

Gold

Up ~60% year-to-date.
Our summer guidance to “trim, not sell” held up well—momentum extended longer than expected.

Bitcoin

Down 17% last month and negative on the year.
Volatility is normal for Bitcoin; 20–50% drawdowns happen frequently.

Real Estate

Continues to lag.
Higher vacancies in apartments, unresolved office-market issues, and concerns about private real estate all weigh on returns.

Asset Allocation Portfolios: A Strong Year Across Risk Profiles

BlackRock’s risk-based models—Conservative (30/70), Balanced (60/40), and Growth (80/20)—all had above-average years:

Conservative portfolios: ~+12% YTD (stronger than a typical stock market year).
Growth portfolios: ~+19% YTD.

Diversification paid off, with international allocations contributing positively after a long drought.

Rates & Sectors: The Leaders and Laggards

Interest Rates

Treasury yields fell across the curve, providing a tailwind for bonds. The 30-year moved the least, but the trend was broadly lower.

Sectors

Top performer: Communication Services (Alphabet was a major driver).
Health care: Strong rebound in Q4 after being a laggard earlier in the year.
Weakest: Real Estate and Consumer Staples.
Discretionary: Up only modestly, heavily influenced by Amazon and Tesla; underlying consumer-oriented stocks remain weak.

The K-shaped economy seems to be reflected in stock sector performance —investors with assets are doing well, while the everyday consumer faces more pressure.

Commodities: Oil Still Weak

Oil prices remain depressed:

WTI ~$58, Brent ~$63, both down more than 15% YTD.
Cheap oil acts as a tailwind to consumers and markets.
The main risk: a sudden acceleration back toward $80–$100, which would pressure consumer behavior and markets.

Housing: Still Stuck

Housing affordability remains historically stretched. Some notable developments:

Mortgage rates declining can offer limited relief.
New home prices have fallen below existing home prices—rare and a sign that builders are pushing to move inventory.
Existing homeowners remain reluctant to offer incentives to sell. Activity is likely to stay muted.

Outlook: What We’re Watching

Volatility

Volatility ticked up briefly in November but quickly retreated. December is typically calm unless an unexpected catalyst emerges.

Concentration

The S&P 500 remains extremely concentrated. Although other names are starting to contribute, the top 10 still dominate performance.

Valuations

Most asset classes are not cheap. This has been an above-average year; investors should not expect similar returns as a baseline going forward.

Positioning: Neutral to Slightly More Conservative

Equities: Maintain exposure, but avoid increasing risk after a strong year.
Fixed Income: Stay short. We’re still not being paid enough to extend duration or take on extra credit risk.
Sectors:
- Health care remains attractive even after the rebound.
- Staples look interesting again at lower valuations.
International: Maintain exposure but avoid aggressive overweighting; the major outperformance occurred in the first half and may not continue at the same pace.

Overall, equilibrium-to-conservative positioning remains the prudent approach heading into 2026