IndiView: Weekly Market Update 11/17/25

Welcome back to the IndiView Weekly Market Update. Here are the key themes driving markets this week:

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1. Quick Correction: I Was Wrong on the Shutdown

Last week I said Democrats might hold out because the agreement didn’t include healthcare subsidy extensions. Instead, eight Senate Democrats crossed over and pushed the bill through quickly, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history. The shutdown’s length matters because:

• Economic data is now delayed and possibly incomplete.
• We’ll see numbers trickle in throughout November, but they may not be fully reliable yet.
• As data resumes, we’ll get a clearer view of jobs, inflation, and spending trends.

This matters most for…

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2. The Fed: December Cut Is No Longer a Lock

For weeks, markets expected two cuts by year-end with almost 90% probability.

Now? It’s closer to 50/50.

Why:

• Alternative data (since official data was frozen) shows inflation still running around a 3% annualized rate.
• That’s not a clear enough down-move for the Fed to confidently cut again.
• Meanwhile, job market data is softening, which pushes the Fed in the opposite direction.

They’re stuck in a classic Fed dilemma:

• Inflation still above target
• Jobs potentially weakening

As I said earlier: one cut vs. no cut doesn’t change history — but sentiment reacts.
Markets simply don’t have a clear direction from the Fed until real data starts flowing again.

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3. Bitcoin Is Officially in a Bear Market

Bitcoin is now down 25%+ from its peak, firmly in bear-market territory.

For Bitcoin, 20–25% drawdowns are normal. For stocks, that’s huge — but crypto lives in a different volatility universe.

• Bitcoin has experienced multiple 50% declines historically.
• Its drop fits with a broader “risk-off” sentiment:
  • AI-heavy stocks softening
  • Debt-laden AI players seeing higher financing stress
• Gold has strongly outperformed Bitcoin this year
• With the recent slide, Bitcoin is now negative year-to-date

Correlations:

• Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ (IBIT vs QQQ) is only about 0.39
• Not one-to-one, but in a risk-off move, you can see both fall together

Bottom line:
This looks less like a structural shift, and more like investors moderating risk across high-volatility assets.

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4. Big Earnings Week: Nvidia + Walmart

Two major stories this week:

a) Nvidia

Nvidia remains:

• The largest company in the world
• The core infrastructure play for AI
• A key holding in our IndiStock portfolio (at a far smaller weight than the S&P 500’s ~8%)

What we’ll be watching:

• Deployment cycle momentum
• Growth trajectory
• Any signs of slowing demand in AI build-out
• Comparisons to AMD’s strong recent results

b) Walmart & Main Street Consumers

A wide range of consumer companies report this week — Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s, etc.

Walmart is especially important:

• It reflects median and lower-income household activity
• It’s one of the best real-time indicators of Main Street health
• It’s also making inroads with higher-income customers via delivery

This ties directly into the ongoing K-shaped economy:

• Higher-income households: holding up well
• Lower-income households: showing more strain

Walmart’s commentary will be critical for understanding where the consumer stands heading into the holidays.

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5. Personal Corner: New York Times Games

On the lighter side…

I realized that most of why I subscribe to The New York Times might be the games:

• Wordle
• Strands
• Connections
• Pips
• Mini crossword
• Quick puzzles that fire the brain without the time sink of a full crossword

NYT has built a great quick-hit mental-exercise ecosystem — and if anyone knows an alternative that’s just as good, I’m all ears.