IndiView: Weekly Market Update 11/24/25
In this week’s IndiView update, Jeremy covers four main topics driving markets and the economy:
1️⃣ AI Strong — Nvidia Delivers Again
Nvidia reported another solid quarter. Demand for AI infrastructure—specifically Blackwell chips—remains extremely strong. There are no signs yet of an AI overbuild or slowdown, although history suggests a future plateau is inevitable. For now, AI investment continues at a robust pace.
2️⃣ Consumer Weakness Emerging
Multiple indicators point to a stretched U.S. consumer:
- Consumer sentiment is near 25-year lows.
- Earnings from restaurants, hotels, leisure, and retailers show a mixed-to-weak picture, especially for mid- and lower-income households.
- Inflation remains around 3%, still above target, keeping pressure on budgets.
- Value-oriented companies like Walmart and TJX are outperforming, while Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s, and others are posting softer results.
Jeremy notes this is consistent with the “K-shaped” dynamic: higher-income households remain stable while the mid-to-lower tier is under strain. Importantly, consumer-centric businesses make up less than 10% of the S&P 500, so weakness there is not yet dragging the broader index.
3️⃣ Government Data Is Muddy — Jobs Data Showing Cracks
With the government reopening after a long shutdown, official data is delayed and noisy. Jeremy urges caution with single data points, but highlights one clear trend: The job market is weakening.
There’s more slack appearing, and firms like JPMorgan are writing about softening conditions. This is something to watch closely.
4️⃣ S&P 500 Revenue Growth Surges
Despite consumer challenges, S&P 500 revenue growth for the quarter is running at 8.4%—the highest since 2022.
Why?
Because the index is increasingly concentrated in AI-linked companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and others—together representing ~35% of the index. Their strong growth is overpowering weakness in consumer names.
Forward estimates call for decelerating revenue growth, but if AI deployment continues at the current pace, a sharp downturn may be difficult.
5️⃣ Thanksgiving Commentary — Returning to Turkey (But Only the Good Parts)
After a few years of beer-can chicken for Thanksgiving, Jeremy is returning to turkey—but only cooking drumsticks and thighs. White meat just isn’t cutting it.
But as always, Jeremy maintains that the sides are still the best part of Thanksgiving.
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