IndiView: Weekly Market Update 12/1/25
Black Friday spending, Fed Rate Cutting, Wall Street Targets, and Holiday Movies
In this week’s IndiView, we dig into three major themes shaping the market narrative as we head into December: consumer spending strength, shifting Fed expectations, and early Wall Street forecasts for 2026.
Black Friday Spending Shows Resilience
Black Friday sales grew 4% year over year, signaling that U.S. consumers are still willing to spend despite extremely weak sentiment readings. Airports remain busy, retail demand hasn’t collapsed, and early reports suggest holiday consumption is holding up.
That said, recent earnings from companies like Lowe’s, Home Depot, and Chipotle hint that spending patterns may be shifting toward value. For now, the consumer isn’t retrenching — but sentiment and inflation trends will determine how long that holds.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge for December
The probability of a December rate cut has jumped from 50% a few weeks ago to the high 80% range now. Recent Fed commentary has softened, pointing to more openness toward easing if inflation data and labor-market conditions cooperate.
A 25 bps cut won’t transform the economy, but the direction matters. Cheaper capital can support capex, AI-driven infrastructure spending, and broader economic momentum — assuming inflation doesn’t reaccelerate.
Wall Street Is Largely Bullish on 2026
Strategists are rolling out their 2026 forecasts, and the tone is mostly positive. Many expect:
- Double-digit earnings growth
- Potential tailwinds from fiscal and tax policy
- Normalizing inflation and labor dynamics
But the key question is how they get there. Valuations are elevated even outside the mega-cap names. If you’re bullish today, you’re implicitly accepting that higher valuations can persist — or that earnings must reaccelerate meaningfully next year. That’s the part worth scrutinizing.
At IndiWealth, we focus less on the headline S&P 500 targets and more on the underlying assumptions: valuations, expected long-term returns, inflation paths, and where it makes sense to be overweight or underweight within a portfolio.
Holiday Movie Corner
We closed the episode on something lighter: holiday movies at the Bryan household. The essentials every year include:
- Planes, Trains and Automobiles
- Christmas Vacation
- Home Alone (hot take: the last 30 minutes are elite; the first hour, not so much)
All three are part of the December rotation — and each still holds up.
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