IndiView: Weekly Market Update 12/29/25

Below is a summarized transcript of our IndiView: Weekly Market Update video. The video is shared at the bottom of the page.

Consumer Sentiment vs. Consumer Behavior

Recent consumer confidence data—including both the Conference Board numbers and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index—continues to paint a bleak picture. Consumers are saying they feel worse about the economy, and sentiment has deteriorated further since the last update.

A major driver appears to be concern around the job market, particularly for mid- to lower-income workers. When people feel uncertain about their ability to find another job if they lose their current one, sentiment typically weakens—and historically, that has led to reduced consumer spending.

What’s unusual this time is that spending hasn’t slowed. Holiday data suggests consumers are still opening their wallets, even while telling surveys they feel pessimistic. That disconnect can’t last forever. If labor market conditions continue to soften, spending will likely follow.

That said, weak consumer sentiment is not automatically bearish for markets. Historically, major troughs in sentiment often occur closer to market bottoms than tops. What makes the current environment unique is that sentiment is depressed while many asset prices remain near all-time highs. It’s something worth monitoring, but not necessarily a signal to panic.

Mortgage Rates and Housing Affordability

Mortgage rates are lower than they were at the start of the year—down roughly one percentage point—but they’ve largely stalled in recent months. Thirty-year rates remain in the mid-6% range, with 15-year mortgages hovering in the mid-5s.

At these levels, rates simply aren’t enough to meaningfully revive housing activity. While lower rates do help at the margin, the real problem remains affordability. Home prices relative to income are still extremely elevated, even as some markets show early signs of flattening.

Builders are responding with incentives: smaller homes, rate buydowns, and price concessions. But the broader housing market likely needs time—and either lower prices, meaningfully lower rates, or both—to regain momentum. At this point, it’s hard to see a significant rebound in housing activity over the next year.

Precious Metals and the Power of Diversification

One of the standout stories of 2025 has been the performance of precious metals. Silver is up roughly 145% year-to-date, while gold has gained around 65%. Those are exceptional returns by any standard.

This reinforces a broader theme of the year: diversification mattered. Investors who held even modest allocations to commodities, precious metals, and international equities generally experienced stronger overall results than those who focused solely on U.S. stocks.

U.S. markets performed well in 2025—but this was one of the rare years where “everything else” worked too. That’s a reminder of why diversified portfolios exist in the first place.

A Brief Year-End Reflection

Finally, a lighter note as winter sets in. Big snowflakes falling quietly in the morning are a reminder that even inconvenient things can be a net positive. While cold weather has its downsides, there’s something grounding about seasonal change—and something you might miss if every day were sunny and 75.

Looking Ahead

Next week we will have our regularly scheduled Weekly Update, but we will also be sharing our 2026 Market Update and Outlook, where we’ll take a deeper dive into 2025 recap, our expectations for the year ahead, and an update on The Path Forward.

Until then, thank you for reading.