IndiView: Weekly Market Update (3/30/26)

Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Weekly Market Update for 3/30/26. The video can be seen in full at the bottom of this post.

Last week I attended the Reservation Economic Summit (RES) in Las Vegas. It was a strong event with thousands in attendance and a good reminder of the momentum building across tribal economies. It also reinforced something I’ve been thinking about for a while—there’s a real need for clearer, more practical discussion around finance and investing in Indian Country. More on that below, but first, back to markets.

Oil Is Still Driving the Market

I’ve said this for a few weeks now, and it hasn’t changed—oil and geopolitics are driving market behavior. Day-to-day movements in stocks are tied closely to what’s happening globally, particularly around Iran and broader energy markets. Whether oil is moving up or down, equities are reacting quickly, often more to headlines than fundamentals. That creates a volatile environment where it’s easy to get caught up in short-term swings. We’re not making portfolio decisions based on trying to predict where oil goes next. That’s a difficult game to win. Instead, we’re watching for when volatility starts to create mispricing.

The Fed Outlook Has Flipped

A month ago, markets were pricing in rate cuts as the most likely outcome for 2026. Now, the highest probability scenario is no change. That’s a meaningful shift in a very short period of time. The reason is straightforward—inflation hasn’t come down enough. Core inflation remains above target, and now energy-driven volatility is adding pressure to headline numbers. When input costs rise, especially energy, businesses tend to pass those costs through, which keeps inflation elevated. Until there’s clearer evidence that inflation is under control, the Fed is likely to stay on hold. They won’t move until they’re forced to, either by declining inflation or a more meaningful slowdown in economic growth.

Market Divergence

What’s more interesting right now is what’s happening beneath the surface. Markets broadly are down year-to-date, but performance is far from uniform. Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and American Express are all down around 20% or more, firmly in bear market territory. At the same time, ExxonMobil, Walmart, and Lockheed Martin are up roughly 10% year-to-date. That’s about a 30% spread within the same market. This kind of divergence is where we start to pay closer attention—not because it guarantees opportunity, but because it creates the conditions where opportunity can emerge.

How We’re Thinking About It

We haven’t made trades based on recent volatility, and we’re not trying to position around short-term geopolitical outcomes. Instead, we’re focused on whether these moves are rational or overdone. Sometimes a decline simply brings an expensive stock back to fair value. Other times, it overshoots and creates an opportunity to own a high-quality business at a discount. The same is true on the upside—strong performers can become stretched. Our approach is to stay disciplined, focus on quality, and look for those moments where price and underlying value start to disconnect.

Introducing IndiNations

Coming out of RES, we’re launching a new podcast: IndiNations. The focus will be on tribal finance and investing—breaking down complex topics like investment policy, capital allocation, and long-term strategy into more practical, actionable conversations. There’s a lot happening across tribal governments and organizations, but not always in a way that’s easy to access or apply. The goal of IndiNations is to help close that gap. We expect to launch very soon.