IndiView: Weekly Market Update 5/11/26

Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Weekly Market Update for 5/11/26. The full video can be seen at the bottom of this post.

The Labor Market Remains Resilient

The latest jobs report came in better than expected, with job gains still above 100,000 and unemployment at 4.3%. That is not the kind of job growth we saw a few years ago, when monthly gains were often above 200,000, but it still points to a labor market that is holding up reasonably well.

The biggest reduction in jobs came from the federal government, while the private sector still appears to be showing resilience. Wage growth has continued to decelerate, which is worth watching, especially if inflation pressures keep rising. Still, the broader takeaway is that the job market does not appear to be getting materially worse right now.

CPI Will Give the Market Its Next Inflation Test

The next major data point is the Consumer Price Index report, which will provide another read on inflation. Both headline and core inflation are expected to move higher, with gasoline prices likely to be a major driver of the headline number.

While energy prices may represent a smaller share of the official inflation basket than they once did, they still have a meaningful impact on consumer sentiment. When people feel the difference every time they fill up the gas tank, it can affect how they think about spending elsewhere.

Gas Prices May Weigh on Sentiment More Than Spending

Consumer sentiment remains weak, and rising gas prices are likely part of the reason. Even if higher fuel costs have not yet caused a major pullback in overall consumer spending, they can still create pressure on household budgets and confidence.

The key question is whether that pressure eventually shows up in behavior. So far, the evidence suggests people feel worse about the economy, but we have not yet seen an aggressive contraction in spending. Summer travel will be an important area to watch.

Corporate Earnings Have Been Surprisingly Strong

The strongest part of the current market backdrop continues to be corporate earnings. With most S&P 500 companies having reported, the majority have beaten both revenue and earnings expectations.

More importantly, companies are not just barely clearing expectations. Aggregate earnings have been coming in well above estimates, creating one of the strongest earnings beat environments since 2021. If the current trend holds, this would mark the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

Earnings Growth Remains a Key Market Support

Over time, earnings growth has been one of the strongest correlations to S&P 500 performance. That makes the current earnings backdrop important, especially at a time when economic data is more mixed.

The open question is whether strong corporate earnings can continue if inflation, weak sentiment, or softer spending begin to weigh more heavily on the economy. For now, though, the earnings picture remains one of the clearest supports for the market.

A Personal Note: Minnesota Spring and Lawn Care

Spring weather finally arrived in Minnesota. As a homeowner and a person getting older, lawn care has started to take on a bigger role than it used to — including the unexpected decision to buy a dethatcher.

Apparently, at some point, caring about your lawn becomes part of the journey. This week, that journey includes dethatching.