IndiView: Weekly Market Update 2/17/26
Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Weekly Market Update video for 2/17/26. The video is posted at the bottom.
The AI Decimation Trade
Markets have started pricing artificial intelligence as a broad destroyer of business models, especially in software. The issue isn’t that AI won’t disrupt companies — it will — but investors are currently treating nearly all software firms as future casualties. Historically, thematic trades overshoot, and this looks similar. The opportunity may lie in identifying which companies will adapt and benefit rather than assuming uniform decline.
Economic Data: Not Hot, Not Cold — Just Stable
Last week’s inflation and jobs reports didn’t meaningfully change the economic trajectory. Inflation is still above target but improving, and job growth remains positive without accelerating. This “Goldilocks-ish” environment suggests conditions are neither deteriorating nor booming — simply steady — which likely keep the Fed in a holding pattern.
Earnings Continue to Quietly Support the Market
More than three-quarters of companies have reported, and results remain solid. Earnings growth has stayed in double-digit territory and estimates for 2026 have not materially declined. Over time, earnings growth — not short-term narratives — is the strongest driver of stock market performance, making this a constructive backdrop despite day-to-day volatility.
Consumer Companies Are the Next Important Signal
With most earnings finished, attention shifts toward consumer-facing companies such as Walmart and Home Depot. Expectations for Walmart are high after strong recent performance, so upcoming reports may provide insight into how healthy underlying demand truly is.
Dirty Harry as VP?
As an ode to recently passed Presidents Day, a small factoid: During the 1988 presidential campaign, George H.W. Bush’s team briefly considered nominating Clint Eastwood as vice president while trailing in the polls — “Do you feel lucky?” would have made for a very entertaining campaign slogan.
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