IndiView: Weekly Market Update 2/9/26

Below is a summarized transcript of our IndiView: Weekly Market Update for February 9, 2026. The video is at the bottom of this post.

Inflation & The Fed: A “Hold Until Something Changes” Environment

We are getting an on-time CPI report and a delayed jobs report, but neither is likely to give the Fed immediate direction. Inflation is not at target, yet it also is not accelerating. Because of that, policymakers appear comfortable staying in a wait-and-see posture until a secondary trend develops — either inflation clearly cooling toward target or re-accelerating enough to force action.

For now, the most likely outcome remains policy stasis. The Fed is not ready to cut, but it also does not feel urgency to tighten. The market is essentially pausing alongside them.

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Labor Market: “Low Hire, Low Fire”

The upcoming jobs report is complicated by the recent government shutdown, so it may not provide clean signals. Broader evidence still suggests a labor market that is neither deteriorating nor expanding rapidly.

Layoff headlines have been driven largely by a few large companies rather than widespread cuts, while hiring remains modest. Some real-time indicators hint at slight improvement, but not enough to imply accelerating growth. The base case continues to be a stable but subdued employment environment — one that does not generate strong economic acceleration on its own.

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Bitcoin: Volatility Is the Feature, Not the Bug

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 44% from its peak. While significant, declines of this magnitude are not unusual — previous drawdowns have reached 70% or more.

The key question for investors is not whether volatility exists, but whether the allocation size is appropriate for their tolerance. In diversified portfolios, exposure must be small enough that large drawdowns do not destabilize overall positioning. At present, we are maintaining only a very small allocation and not adding to it.

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Earnings Season: Strong Results Holding Up Estimates

With 59% of the S&P 500 reported, earnings growth is running in double digits and companies are broadly beating on both revenue and earnings. More importantly, consensus estimates have not been declining — a typical early-year pattern that has not appeared yet.

Profit margins remain supported by steady economic activity and efficiency improvements, including productivity gains. As long as earnings continue growing, markets can tolerate higher valuations. The real risk would be falling earnings combined with shrinking valuations — something we are not currently seeing.

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What We’re Watching Next: The Consumer

The remaining earnings reports are heavily consumer-focused. Over the next few weeks, the important signals will come from companies selling directly to households:

• Are consumers trading down?
• Is spending resilient?
• Are they confirming the K-shaped economy?

Those answers will matter more than most macro headlines in the near term.

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Sports Weekend Notes

The Super Bowl was largely uneventful outside of the halftime show, while the Olympics returned — along with a reminder that curling may rival golf as the perfect nap sport. Calm, quiet, occasionally intense, and very easy to drift in and out of while watching.