IndiView: Weekly Market Update 3/2/26

Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Weekly Market Update for 3/2/26. The video is included at the bottom of this post.

1. U.S. & Israel Strike Iran — Oil Jumps 7%

Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel launched missile strikes into Iran. Markets reacted quickly, with oil up roughly 7%, bringing WTI crude to about $71.

There’s already talk of $100 oil. That’s possible — but we need context.

At $71, oil is still in a historically normal range. For years, we’ve viewed roughly $60–$80 as the median zone that does not materially constrain economic growth. We are not in crisis territory.

That said, oil functions like a tax on consumers and businesses. If prices move meaningfully higher — $80, $85, $90 — then it begins to pressure:

• Lower- and middle-income households
• Business margins
• Consumer sentiment

2. February Jobs Report Preview

We get a new jobs report this Friday.

January surprised to the upside, showing stronger hiring than expected. But we are still in a slow-growth environment overall.

Expectations for February are closer to 50,000–70,000 jobs added, down from January’s 130,000.

The key questions:

• Was January a one-off?
• Is the labor market stabilizing?
• Or are we continuing a gradual weakening trend?

Jobs matter enormously — particularly for lower- and middle-income households. Job security drives spending behavior and overall economic confidence.

3. Nvidia Earnings: Great Report, Muted Stock Reaction

Nvidia reported earnings last week — and fundamentally, the report was excellent.

Revenue growth was strong. Guidance was strong. Demand for AI chips remains robust.

So why did the stock lag?

A few reasons:

• Expectations were extremely high.
• Investors are increasingly aware of competition entering the AI chip space.
• There’s growing scrutiny around how long this CapEx cycle can continue.

Right now, major tech firms are still spending aggressively on AI infrastructure. That spending hasn’t slowed.

However, CapEx is one of the fastest levers companies can pull if broader economic growth softens. If core business lines slow, AI spending could be moderated.

There’s no evidence of that yet — but markets are forward-looking and beginning to price in the possibility.

4. A Minnesota Observation: Morning Sun & Daylight Savings

On a lighter note — the morning sun is finally returning here in Minnesota.

After dropping my child off at school, I’m driving directly into a very bright sunrise. It’s blinding — but welcome.

Winter in Minnesota makes you appreciate sunlight more than almost anything.

Which is why daylight savings time remains frustrating. We adjust clocks, lose consistency, and temporarily disrupt morning light patterns.

I’d prefer permanent standard time — but for now, I’ll take the sunrise where I can get it.