IndiView: Weekly Market Update 5/4/26

Below is a summarized transcript of the IndiView: Weekly Market Update for 5/4/26. The full video can be seen at the bottom of this post.

Big Tech Is Still Growing — and Still Spending

Big Tech earnings were strong again, with Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google all showing solid revenue and earnings growth. The bigger story, though, may be the continued level of capital spending. These companies are not talking about pulling back. They are still spending aggressively on AI infrastructure and market share, which keeps reinforcing the idea that the AI race remains a land grab.

Google’s AI Story Continues to Improve

Google stood out on the positive side, continuing its strong stock performance after a period when investors were worried AI could disrupt its search business. The key point is that the AI landscape is still not settled. Investor sentiment has shifted several times across ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and other tools, and there is still no clear final winner. Google’s recent performance suggests the market is becoming more willing to believe it can benefit from AI rather than simply be disrupted by it.

Meta’s Pullback Shows the Market Is More Selective

Meta moved in the opposite direction, with the stock pulling back after earnings. The issue is not that Meta cannot benefit from AI, but that its AI revenue case is less direct than some of the other major technology companies. Meta remains primarily an advertising-driven business. AI can help improve that business, but investors appear to be more cautious when the spending is high and the path to direct monetization is less obvious.

The Fed Holds Steady, But Leadership Change Matters

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, which was widely expected. The more important issue may be what comes next as Chair Powell transitions out of the chair role while potentially remaining as a Fed governor. With new leadership coming in, the Fed may face more pressure to act on interest rates, especially if political pressure for lower rates increases. The real question is whether the economic data will support any change in direction.

Rate Expectations Can Shift Quickly

For now, the highest-probability outcome still appears to be no major change in rates through year-end. But market expectations can move quickly. Sentiment has already shifted meaningfully at points this year, and it could shift again if inflation reaccelerates, the economy weakens, or the labor market changes direction. The next few months will be important for understanding whether the Fed stays in place or begins to move.

Jobs Report: Watching for a Change in Trend

The upcoming jobs report will be closely watched for signs that the labor market is changing. The current environment still looks like “low hire, low fire” — not strong job growth, but not widespread layoffs either. The main question is whether wage growth is slowing further, whether hiring is weakening, or whether AI-related deployment is starting to show up more clearly in employment data. So far, the evidence does not suggest a major break lower, but the trend is worth watching.

Minnesota Sports: Hope, Pessimism, and the Usual Emotional Damage

On the lighter side, Minnesota sports had a rare bright week, with the Wild advancing and the Timberwolves pulling off a memorable win despite injuries. But being a Minnesota sports fan means balancing every good moment with the expectation that disappointment may be waiting around the corner. For now, there is some sunshine — even if history says the rain is probably nearby.